A Super Victory for Pletcher and Borel
Horseracing Betting Lines
05/03/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - 0 for 24? Make that 1 for...who's
counting!
Seconds after Super Saver cruised past the finish line in the 136th Kentucky
Derby, all of Todd Pletcher's previous setbacks meant absolutely nothing. The
four-time Eclipse Award-winner can no longer be viewed as the most preeminent
trainer in the country without a Derby victory.
Pletcher seemed to not even be fazed by finally getting the monkey off his
back and handled the win as one would have expected - cool, calm and
collected.
The horse that got him to this point wasn't the highly-touted Eskendereya, who
had to bow out of the race one week earlier, but WinStar Farm's Super Saver,
who wound up the 8-1 second-choice in the Run for the Roses.
The homebred had a few things in his favor this past Saturday, first of which
was an affinity for the wet going - the colt already owned a prior victory in
the slop last September at Belmont Park.
Second, a win over the Churchill Downs surface is always a plus and Super
Saver had that going for him as well.
Third, and perhaps most important, he had Calvin Borel in the saddle.
Winning the Kentucky Derby has become old hat for Borel as the veteran jockey
flat-out owns the race with three victories in the last four years.
The Louisiana native had Super Saver on the rail (his trademark spot) for
almost the entire length of the Derby and the bay colt responded with a 2 1/2-
length win over the late closing Ice Box. The final time for the 1 1/4-mile
event was 2:04 2/5 seconds over the sloppy track.
Speaking of Ice Box, the Florida Derby winner suffered through a nasty trip
having to steady on three separate occasions during the race. His second-place
finish should put to rest any negative thoughts of horses coming into the
Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff.
As was the case with Super Saver, another horse that hugged the rail almost
the entire way was Paddy O'Prado. The third-place finisher had pretty much the
same trip as the winner, but was always a few lengths behind. Still, a very
good performance from a colt whose lone conventional dirt race was a seventh-
place finish last July.
Longshot Make Music for Me closed well from last to wind up fourth completing
a superfecta worth $202,559.20.
It was the fourth straight year the winner had just two prep races in his
three-year-old campaign - something to keep in mind when handicapping the 2011
Kentucky Derby.
OTHER TOP PERFORMANCES
Noble's Promise wasn't even expected to enter the race after a dismal fifth-
place finish in the Arkansas Derby. The Kenny McPeek-trained colt was
suffering from a lung infection, not to mention receiving cuts and scrapes
during the running of the race.
However, the gritty three-year-old, with a pedigree that most experts thought
wouldn't allow him to compete at 10 furlongs, came through with a sensational
effort taking the lead approaching the top of the stretch before fading to
fifth at the wire.
Lookin At Lucky, the 6-1 favorite, had another eventful trip, his fourth in
his last five appearances. The two-year-old champ was up against it way back
on Wednesday when he drew post position one, and the race played out exactly
as expected.
After getting roughed up by Noble's Promise early on, he was then mugged by
Stately Victor forcing jockey Garrett Gomez to steady his mount. The three-
time grade 1 winner was all the way back in 18th position ahead of just Ice
Box and Make Music for Me after the first quarter-mile before closing strongly
around the turn.
It's interesting to note that five of the final top eight finishers were 15th,
17th, 18th, 19th and 20th after a blistering 46-second first-half mile. The
only horse far back early on that failed to fire was Awesome Act, who wound up
next-to-last in the 20-horse field.
On the other hand, kudos go out to Super Saver and Noble's Promise for being
the only two colts in the first flight of horses to earn purse money - Super
Saver $1,425,200 for the win and Noble's Promise $60,000 for finishing fifth.
WHERE WAS THE VALUE?
The wait for the Derby is a long one, especially over the winter when most of
the betting action is in the form of assorted prep races.
Another way to have action is to play one, two, or all three Kentucky Derby
Future Wagers. All are risky plays as witnessed by the late defections of
Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, I Want Revenge and Eskendereya over the last
two years.
Still, there are ways to beat the system.
Super Saver, who went off at 8-1 on race day, was an incredible 35-1 in Pool 3
based on his initial three-year-old prep race at Tampa Bay Downs. The 2010
Kentucky Derby winner was slightly lower odds in the first two wagers closing
at 20-1 in Pool 1, followed by 24-1 in Pool 2.
A two-dollar Pool 3 exacta wager with Super Saver over Ice Box also cleaned
house compared to Derby Day as the payoff came back a whopping $1,077.40
instead of the minuscule $152.40 at the track.
On the other hand, the exacta in Pools 1 and 2 failed to light up the board
since Ice Box was not a single entrant in the first two future wagers. Those
payoffs with Super Saver over the "field" were very similar to the actual
price at Churchill Downs. The Pool 1 exacta returned just $176.40 while the
number in Pool 2 came back a tad higher at $259.20.
LOOKING AHEAD TO BALTIMORE
The Preakness is less than two weeks away on May 15 at Pimlico, and as of now,
a full field is expected with Super Saver leading the charge.
Others considering the second leg of the Triple Crown are Lookin At Lucky,
Paddy OPrado, Make Music for Me, Schoolyard Dreams, Caracortado, Dublin,
Pleasant Prince, Jackson Bend, Hurricane Ike, A Little Warm, Aikenite,
Bushwacked and Turf Melody
Remember, two of the last four Preakness winners did not race in the Kentucky
Derby, a far cry from the previous trend that had just one non-Derby starter
(Red Bullet) win the race since Deputed Testamony rolled home in the slop back
in 1983.
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NCAA Football Betting
Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)
"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."
Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins
There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.
Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins
Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.
USC Trojans - 10.5 wins
A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.
Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy
Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.
"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."
Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1
The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1
If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.
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