Bobcats open key homestand vs. woeful Wolves
Basketball Betting Lines
03/24/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Charlotte Bobcats are closing in on the franchise's
first postseason appearance and are back in the Tar Heel state tonight for the
opener of a five-game homestand versus the Minnesota Timberwolves.
If only the Bobcats could play all of their games at home as evidenced by the
25-8 mark at Time Warner Cable Arena. The 25 home wins are a franchise record
in a season, topping the 23 victories as the host set last season. They're
11-26 as the visitor, and will also play the Wizards, Raptors, Sixers and
Bucks on the residency.
Charlotte is currently seeded seventh in the Eastern Conference, just a half-
game behind No. 6 Miami and three games ahead of ninth-place Chicago. The
Bulls are 2 1/2 games off the eighth and final postseason slot in the
conference. The Bobcats put the brakes on a two-game slide and won for the
eighth time in 11 tries after beating Washington by a 95-86 score in overtime
on Tuesday in the finale of a three-game road trip.
Gerald Wallace had 17 points and 19 rebounds, Stephen Jackson added 16 points
and seven boards, and Boris Diaw netted 17 points for the Bobcats, who
outscored the Wizards, 13-4, in the extra session.
"In overtime, I told them we were lucky to be in overtime," said Bobcats head
coach Larry Brown. "I told them to concentrate on getting the jump ball and
having good possessions."
Minnesota will hobble into Charlotte riding a 13-game losing streak. It will
also visit the Orlando Magic on the quick trek and has lost seven in a row
away from the Twin Cities. The Timberwolves, who are 5-31 as the guest, are
coming off Monday's 106-100 loss versus the Toronto Raptors at Target Center.
Al Jefferson led all scorers with 22 points to go with seven rebounds, while
Wayne Ellington scored 17 points in a reserve role for the Timberwolves, who
have dropped 19 of the last 20 games and haven't won since beating Miami back
on February 23.
Jonny Flynn and Kevin Love had 14 and 13 points, respectively, in defeat.
"Our half-court defense let us down in the second half," said Wolves coach
Kurt Rambis. "We just couldn't find ways to get stops. Because they have
talented guards and pick setters and bigs that can shoot basketball it puts a
lot of stress on our defense. It spelled our fate tonight."
The Timberwolves last dropped 13 in a row from November 29 - December 23 of
the 2008-09 campaign, and haven't lost 14 straight games since a 16-game
drought spanning from April 8 - November 12, 1994. They lost 16 consecutive
contests in a season February 29 - March 29, 1993.
Charlotte defeated Minnesota, 93-92, last month in Minneapolis thanks to Nazr
Mohammed's dunk with 5.3 seconds left and Jackson's 33 points. The Bobcats
have won five of the last six meetings with the T'Wolves, who have lost four
of the five matchups as the guest.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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